Facts, Not Fiction: The False Narrative on LNG Exports and U.S. Residential Prices

Mark Green
Posted April 18, 2025

Headline: “Trump’s push for more LNG exports risks domestic price surge” 

The possibility of cost-conscious Americans paying more for natural gas - and suggesting U.S. liquefied natural gas (LNG) exports are to blame – is a sure-fire attention-grabber. Yet, the narrative, regularly spun by LNG export opponents, doesn’t hold up to examination. 

Let’s look at the facts again, because this false and well-worn narrative that was trotted out last year when the Biden administration halted permitting for U.S. LNG export projects can harm American energy leadership.  

Bottom line: Repeating a false narrative over and over doesn’t improve its credibility. 

Fortunately, many have looked at whether LNG exports drive domestic prices higher. Start with S&P Global’s recent, comprehensive look at U.S. LNG exports.  

In addition to finding the LNG industry is a major U.S. economic engine – accounting for $408 billion in GDP contribution since 2016 and supporting an average of 273,000 direct, indirect and induced U.S. jobs – S&P Global concluded that LNG exports have had no major impact on domestic residential natural gas prices. To the contrary, those prices were among the lowest in the world in 2023:  

The main reasons are two-fold: (1) Enormous domestic natural gas resources, more than 35 years of economic natural gas supply available at a cost at or below $4 per million (MMBtu); and (2) production growth of more than 40 billion cubic feet per day (bcf/d) since 2010, which has dwarfed LNG export growth by a 3-1 margin while driving a “sustained reduction in U.S. prices.” Domestic natural gas production has increased 44% since 2015, meeting domestic demand and demand for LNG exports.  

S&P Global: 

“[D]espite the 13 bcf/d growth in LNG feedgas requirements since 2016, U.S. domestic wholesale gas prices have continued their downward trend, interrupted only temporarily by the combination of rapid post-COVID growth and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022.” 

Studied another way, S&P Global found that halting LNG export permitting for an extended time period would reduce domestic residential natural gas prices just 0.7% to 2040. The average annual natural gas cost savings per household: $11 per year to 2040, less than the cost of a soft drink and a hot dog at many ballparks. 

As API’s Dustin Meyer pointed out, domestic natural gas prices at this level occurred as LNG exports reached record highs. When adjusted for inflation, U.S. residential natural gas prices from 2016-2023 show very little variation from history. 

There’s also 2024 research from Energy Ventures Analysis that also showed Americans benefiting from some of the lowest residential natural gas prices in the world as the U.S. led everyone in exporting LNG.  

Again, abundant domestic natural gas supply and surging production allowed both the U.S. market and overseas demand to be met without significantly affecting American consumers. 

These are the historic facts, not fiction. Let’s hope they put to rest one false narrative about LNG exports.